Australia may have had a much larger Indigenous population before Europeans arrived

Australia may have had a much larger Indigenous population before the arrival of Europeans than previously thought, a new study has found.

The research, based on computer modelling, suggests that about 93 per cent of the pre-European population was removed in under 80 years following the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788. And this population, researchers at Flinders University estimated, was up to seven times larger than previously thought.

“Understanding the size of Indigenous population in Australia before European invasion in 1788 is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation,” Corey Bradshaw, author of the study published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour, said.

One of the earliest attempts at determining the pre-colonisation population of Australia in the 1930s came up with a figure of 250,000. However, early calculations didn’t account for the impacts of lethal diseases and structural violence.

These impacts were far more extensive than previously known, according to recent research, suggesting the early figures underestimated the number of people living across the continent.

The new estimate was made after reviewing archaeological and genetic reconstructions as well as cultural observations.

It puts the pre-colonial Indigenous population at over two million, or 0.29 people per sq km.

By 1861, the study pointed out, only about seven per cent of this population survived.

“These devastating findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians,” said Alan Williams, another author of the study from James Cook University, “and demonstrate their remarkable survival, resilience and recovery over the past century.”

The Indigenous population has grown since the 1950s, but has come nowhere close to matching the pre-colonial size. According to the 2021 census, it was at about 37 per cent of the estimated median pre-colonial size.

“The findings highlight the scale of demographic catastrophe experienced by Indigenous Australians due to colonisation, with the implications being a heightened understanding of intergenerational trauma and to inform future policy that assists Indigenous people,” Lynette Russell, another study author, said.

The study also highlights the importance of using multiple approaches to reconstruct population histories. “These research findings challenge us to rethink the scale of what happened after 1788,” Larissa Behrendt, a study co-author, said. “We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonisation but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story.”

“But the research also tells us something extraordinary,” she added. “Our survival is one of Australian history’s most remarkable stories.”