CNBC Daily Open: Belgium's sweet victory, Ukraine's air battle and Le Pen's judgement day

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to today's edition of the Daily Open newsletter.

Sometimes, things just right themselves. Not always, but sometimes.

Last night's football results may provide some solace for Belgium as it progresses to the quarter-finals.

But it's still going to be a tough week for Europe, as NATO summits have become a bruising affair during the Trump administration years.

As people wake up across Europe this Tuesday morning, the most-checked alert is almost sure to be the outcome of the Belgium-U.S. knockout game played overnight.

The Belgians emerged victorious with a 4-1 win over the host nation. But the political tension off the pitch has rivalled anything the game has to offer. President Donald Trump has defended his decision to call FIFA's President Gianni Infantino and challenge a previous red card for striker Folarin Balogun.

FIFA's subsequent decision to lift that sanction ahead of the Belgium game has sparked a scandal around the football association. So while the tournament will conclude with the final on July 19, the damage to FIFA's reputation could take much longer to repair.

Trump will arrive in Turkey later today for the NATO leaders summit. The build-up to this meeting has been tense, with defense spending remaining a contentious topic. Overnight, the president took to Truth Social to claim "the WAR DEPARTMENT has never been HOTTER," adding "we must pass Reconciliation 3.0, with 350 Billion Dollars for Defense."

CNBC's Steve Sedgwick asked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte about tensions with the U.S. and other nations, but Rutte stressed that America is not splitting the alliance.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing a fresh wave of attacks from Russia, amid some of the deadliest strikes on Kyiv since the war began in 2022. Speaking to the Financial Times, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he thinks Trump's attitude towards the war has shifted in Ukraine's favor. The two leaders are set to meet at the summit in Ankara over the next two days.

It's a crucial day in France, where a court will rule on an appeal from far-right politician Marine Le Pen.

She has been banned from public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds, a charge she denies. If the Paris appeal court bars her from running in the 2027 presidential election, it will end her long run as the leader of the National Rally and present a career-defining moment to far-right Jordan Bardella.

Chinese AI models are gaining ground with U.S. companies as OpenAI, Anthropic costs surge

Chinese-built AI models are gaining traction among U.S. companies as they narrow the performance gap with leading American rivals while remaining significantly cheaper to use.

Recent model releases from Chinese companies, including DeepSeek and Z.ai, are seen by many as highly competitive compared to leading frontier systems from the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI. Those advances in capability come as token prices for the most advanced models rise at many U.S. AI labs, leaving companies grappling with unexpectedly high costs associated with using the tech.

— Kai Nicol-Schwarz