CNBC Daily Open: Stock markets sense a shift

Hello, this is Katie Foley writing to you from London. Welcome to today's edition of the Daily Open newsletter.

It genuinely feels like we could be on the cusp of some big shifts.

It's now confirmed — next week we will see the biggest IPO of all time in SpaceX.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced overnight has seen oil ease off, and although we've heard it before, U.S. President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran could come "over the weekend".

Investors are hoping that several of the year's biggest unanswered questions are nearing a resolution.

Global stocks are sliding, with Asia-Pacific markets tracking Wall Street losses overnight. European and U.S. futures point to continued pressure in today's session.

But oil has eased off slightly as Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire, after talks brokered by the U.S., boosting hopes for a broader deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a wide-ranging interview with CNBC's Sara Eisen in Jerusalem on Wednesday that President Trump had warned Iran of "a full-scale return to military action," if necessary, emphasizing that it would ultimately be the U.S. president's decision. Netanyahu, however, noted that there had been tactical disagreements between the U.S. and Israel, though they were largely on the same page on their Middle East strategy.

Meanwhile the U.S. House of Representatives delivered a largely-symbolic rebuke to Trump's authority on Iran, with four Republicans joining Democrats to vote for a resolution that would block the U.S. President from continuing the war without Congressional approval.

In corporate news, SpaceX finally made it official, setting a fixed price of $135 per share for its IPO next Friday, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion. That move is set to make CEO Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. But don't assume it will all be plain sailing, a CNBC review of 30 major initial public offerings over the past 15 years shows stocks tend to fall and suffer sharp drawdowns in the first year.

Elsewhere, the EU unveiled its long-delayed "tech sovereignty" package, which aims to wean the bloc off dependence on U.S.and Chinese tech giants. The measure has unsurprisingly faced criticism that it does not go far enough. Former U.K. Deputy Prime Minister and Meta's former President of Global Affairs Nick Clegg told CNBC that European AI laws are a "dog's dinner."

On the diplomatic front, Trump confirmed in a post on Truth Social he will travel to Evian, France later this month for the G7, where he might run into OpenAI chief Sam Altman who was personally invited by President Emmanuel Macron, as exclusively reported by CNBC.

— Katie Foley

SoftBank's OpenAI bet and rising debt are raising liquidity crunch concerns

SoftBank's ascent to becoming Japan's most valuable company has put the spotlight on the conglomerate, raising questions over whether it is taking on too much risk through its highly leveraged bet on artificial intelligence.

Shares of the Japanese technology investment giant, led by founder Masayoshi Son, have surged about 70% this year on investor enthusiasm over AI, buoyed by the soaring valuation of chip designer Arm Holdings and expectations that OpenAI could see a blockbuster initial public offering this year.

The rally helped SoftBank dethrone Toyota in market capitalization rankings earlier this week, cementing a dramatic turnaround for a company that only a few years ago was reeling from losses tied to its failed WeWork bet. SoftBank's cumulative investment losses in WeWork exceeded $14 billion.

Analysts whom CNBC spoke to warned that the market's renewed optimism on SoftBank is also masking mounting balance-sheet risks.

— Lee Ying Shan