Republicans could still win the House in the 2026 midterm election: Scalise

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said Thursday that Republicans could still win a majority in the 2026 midterm elections despite the party's intense headwinds ahead of the pivotal November contest.

Polling indicates voters are souring on President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans ahead of the election, mainly driven by dissatisfaction with the economy. A recent AP-NORC poll found Trump's approval rating on the economy had cratered to 30%, with a whopping 70% disapproving of the president's job performance.

The election has high stakes and will effectively determine whether Trump enters 2027 as a lame duck with a Democratic Congress or maintains a Republican governing majority for the last two years of his presidency.

Scalise, in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday, argued Republicans could still weather the storm caused in part by skyrocketing prices from the war with Iran.

"It's a path that is focused on turnout, number one, and delivering what we've delivered to finally start turning this mess around that we inherited a year and a half ago," Scalise said.

Americans are weathering high gas prices from the war with Iran ahead of the summer driving season, which shows few signs of relenting. U.S. crude oil is hovering around $105 on Thursday morning, and gas prices are now $4.30 per gallon on average nationally, according to AAA. Voters have also repeatedly knocked Trump and Republicans on the cost of living, with Democrats sweeping major 2025 off-year elections on an affordability message.

Scalise also knocked Democrats for resisting funding the Department of Homeland Security, arguing that Republicans won on immigration in 2024 and could again in 2026.

"Midterms are always tough for the incumbent party, but this is not your father's Democrat Party," Scalise said. "Democrats in Washington have voted every step of the way against those measures, including now shutting down the entire Department of Homeland Security. At the end of the day, this is not good for them ... so they're going to have to answer for that in November."

Democrats have resisted funding DHS after Trump's immigration crackdown in Minnesota resulted in the deaths of two U.S. citizens. Trump's approval in the AP-NORC poll on immigration also slipped, with only 40% of voters approving.

Democrats are highly favored to take the House in November, holding about a 5.2 percentage point edge in the RealClearPolitics generic ballot average. Republicans have a five-seat majority, up from three seats after a resignation and death of Democratic House members.

The Senate will be a tougher climb for Democrats, however, with the party needing to overcome a difficult map this cycle. Democrats need to flip at least four states while maintaining all seats they currently have to change the balance of power in the upper chamber.

"This is a tall order, especially with Republicans currently enjoying a major fundraising advantage, and we expect that Dems will fall just short, ending up with 49-50 seats. Our base case remains that Republicans will narrowly retain control of the Senate," a recent Wolfe Research report obtained by CNBC read.

— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.