The gold chart looks poised for a bounce. How to play it for less
If you've been watching the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), you know the yellow metal has been consolidating and appears to be bouncing off its 150-day moving average (support).
Tekef
If you've been watching the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), you know the yellow metal has been consolidating and appears to be bouncing off its 150-day moving average (support). If one prefers to use the 200-day moving average, that support level is just below $400, which is also approximately the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Here's how to trade the technical setup: the June $395/$445/$480 call spread risk reversal.
SPDR Gold (GLD), YTD
This strategy provides a low-decay bullish play for a total net debit of just $4.00 per contract, or 1% of the current price. Of course, selling that lower strike put will tie up a lot of cash, but less so than simply buying 100 shares of GLD.
Sell the June $395 PutBuy the June $445 CallSell the June $480 CallSkill level: AdvancedWhy This Strategy Wins
Structured Around Key Technical Levels: We see immediate resistance at $441. By placing our long call strike at $445, we aren't paying for "hopium" premium. Instead, we use a call spread to mitigate the immediate resistance barrier. Meanwhile, that short $395 put sits comfortably around our lower support level. If GLD drops, $395 is a level one might consider starting to add to one's positions. By selling that put, we take that risk, but it's an acceptable one.Weaponizing "Call Skew": Gold and other commodities play by different rules regarding options prices than equities typically do. For stock options, puts generally trade at a premium to at-the-money options and out-of-the-money calls. With commodities, when geopolitical tensions or inflation fears spike, investors often scramble for upside calls, making out-of-the-money options expensive relative to at-the-money options. By selling the higher strike $480 calls, we exploit this "call skew" to heavily subsidize the cost of our $445 upside exposure.The Theta Sleep-Easy Factor: Pure long options positions bleed money every day you wait for the move. Because we are selling both an out-of-the-money put and a higher-strike call, we drastically reduce our time decay (theta). Time is no longer your enemy.The risk reversal will tie up slightly less capital than buying GLD stock at $433, lets you capture a massive chunk of the anticipated "gold rush" for next to no premium outlay. You get defined, subsidized upside, and a meaningful buffer on the downside, and a trade that works with the dynamics of the options market, not against it.
Get long, use the skew, and let the 150-day moving average do the heavy lifting.
