CNBC Daily Open: Markets shrug off ceasefire uncertainty

Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.

Wall Street traded on the promise of peace Thursday, lifting U.S. equities on the back of a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran. 

However, energy markets reflected a less optimistic reality, with oil climbing as access through the Strait of Hormuz appears to remain restricted. 

The question now: Could Iran be pushing for a new normal in one of the world's most critical shipping lanes?

Stocks extended their rally on Thursday as investors remained optimistic that the fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could hold, even as key details of the agreement remain unresolved. 

Energy markets, however, signaled less optimism. U.S. crude surged above $100 during the session as it became clear that Iran was still limiting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the pause in its conflict with the U.S.

That view was reinforced by the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, who said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was not opened to ship traffic. 

"This moment requires clarity," Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber wrote in a social media post. "So let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled."

Oil prices later pulled back from session highs after Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon "as soon as possible." Israel's military campaign in Lebanon against Iran's ally Hezbollah has emerged as a central fault line in Washington and Tehran's deal. 

Still, the exact status of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain a focal point in negotiations. The Financial Times reported that Iran plans to make shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency to pass through the strait.

Responding to those reports, President Donald Trump on Thursday said that Iran "better stop now" if it's charging oil tankers for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, his top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, said that getting even one oil tanker through the strait would provide a "huge chunk of what's missing" amid a global supply crunch.

However, in a development that could trigger further oil disruptions, a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline to the Red Sea has been reportedly attacked by Iran, cutting its throughput.

Governments are stepping up contingency measures. Japan is reportedly considering releasing about 20 days' worth of oil reserves as early as May.

In Washington, a notable development underscored the broader geopolitical backdrop. A recent government filing has revealed a plan to automatically register American men aged 18 to 26 for a U.S. military draft by December, almost a half-century after compulsory registration for that age group became law. 

Beyond geopolitics, major developments have been occurring in the world of big tech. 

Meta recently released Muse Spark, its first new AI model in over a year, as it looks to generate returns on its massive investment in Scale AI co-founder Alexandr Wang in June. 

It comes after Anthropic announced a powerful new model that will roll out to a select group of companies as part of its new cybersecurity initiative called Project Glasswing.

— Dylan Butts 

AI threat's relentless flogging of software stocks shows no end in sight with Anthropic's new agent.

Software's artificial intelligence troubles don't appear as though they will let up anytime soon, following the sector's slide after Anthropic's latest product and revenue updates.

Software is down again this week, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) falling Wednesday — when most of the market participated in a sharp rally following President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire — and then again on Thursday. The IGV is down more than 4% week to date. Some stocks suffered more than others, like Workday and Intuit, which are both down more than 15% this week.

The tumult comes after the Anthropic disclosed this week that its revenue run rate now tops $30 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025. The company also rolled out its latest updates on agentic tools, including Claude Managed Agents, which reduce the time it takes for developers to build their own agents. That revived fears of an AI day of reckoning coming for software.

— Sarah Min