Could your summer holiday be in peril due to a jet fuel crisis? Here’s why you don’t need to panic — just yet

Could your summer holiday be in peril? That’s a concern shared by many travellers this weekend, after reports that the UK is more exposed to a shortage of jet fuel than anywhere else in Europe.

Earlier this week, the prime minister even suggested people may have to change “where they go on holiday”. Yet Britain’s airlines continue to insist they are not seeing any shortages.

So what is the prospective holidaymaker to make of it all? Simon Calder, travel correspondent of The Independent, has multiple flight bookings of his own for the coming months – and takes a look at what it all means.

Are the tanks about to run dry – or will it all be fine?

Let’s start by looking at the supply picture. The UK has more flights than any other European nation, and therefore more thirst for fuel. And we are certainly heavily dependent on imported aviation fuel. The airline bosses and the government are saying there are no current shortages.

Jet2 and easyJet have come out and said they see no reason why planned flights should not go ahead. And the only cancellations I am seeing are those made purely for commercial reasons – with the high price of aviation fuel making some poorly performing routes loss-making, and airlines grounding planes because it’s cheaper than flying them.

So is all the talk of aviation fuel shortages rubbish?

Not at all. The equilibrium that has kept airline engines turning for decades has been disturbed, and a highly significant supply route – from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – has been ruptured. But demand for fuel is also diminishing – partly because Gulf-based airlines are flying significantly less, but also because the high price of aviation fuel is leading carriers to cancel flights tactically.

First out of the blocks was Aurigny of Guernsey, which began grounding flights almost as soon as the Iran conflict began. The aim: to fly one completely full plane, instead of two half-empty departures. And we can expect much more of that behaviour if, as rumoured, the government relaxes the tight rule on “slots” at key airports.

Why are airport slots relevant?

It’s no secret that airlines have seen reduced demand from travellers since the crisis unfolded. British Airways has a dozen flights on a typical day from London to Dublin, and its sibling Aer Lingus has many more. Both airlines might like to take a few of those flights out of the schedule and move some passengers an hour or two either way. That could fill empty seats and save cash – as well as pushing up fares for remaining seats.

But in normal times strict rules apply to the precious permissions to land and take off from Britain’s most congested airports: use it or lose it. I predict that rule will be suspended, just as it was during Covid. That will allow BA and other airlines to ground flights with impunity. Which, in turn, will reduce demand for aviation fuel, preserving the precious liquid for holiday flights.

So holiday flights might be prioritised ahead of business flights?

I believe so. While July and August are easily the busiest months for leisure travel, they are always very quiet for business – partly because corporate travellers tend to be on holiday. Axing a few Heathrow to Frankfurt flights will have far less of an impact – emotionally on the passenger and financially for the airline – than grounding a Luton to Mykonos departure.

If your flight is cancelled, what are your rights?

Under air passengers’ rights rules, travellers whose flights are departing from the UK or the EU – or on British or European airlines from anywhere in the world – have strong rights. They are entitled to be flown to their destination as close to the original schedule as possible, on any airline with seats available, and to be provided with meals and hotels if there is a significant delay.

What about long-haul flights?

Happily, there’s a straightforward fix which is to filling up an aircraft’s tanks fully and “pitstop” on the way home. This has long been done in many circumstances, including in the UK when a fire reduced fuel supplies at Heathrow, and flights to Australia had to pause at Stansted.

Any other way to deal with shortages of fuel in the UK?

The easiest is “tankering” in fuel from abroad. This week the boss of Wizz Air in the UK told me that the airline has contingency plans to bring in fuel from abroad to the UK, just filling aircraft tanks to the brim in Budapest for the flight back from Gatwick. And the amount of fuel burnt could also be substantially reduced by grounding shorter-distance domestic flights, especially from Manchester, Newcastle and southern Scotland to London.

The airlines would squeal, but such a move would free up fuel for journeys that cannot realistically be done by rail – such as Luton to Mykonos.

So no big worries, then?

I predict not. Holidaymakers actually dealt with a much bigger shortage of flights in 2022, coming out of Covid, when airlines such as British Airways and easyJet cancelled tens of thousands of flights due largely to staff shortage. It was painful and awkward, but almost everyone got their holiday.

Read more: All the airlines cancelling flights and adding extra charges amid jet fuel crisis